Friday, June 4, 2010

Interest rate history might help today's bond investors

This is a chart of the 10-year US Treasury interest rate going back to 1962.  The rate started 1962 around 4% and over the next approximately 20 years rose to a high of almost 16% in 1981.  The general trend in rates for the 30 years since the 1981 high has been down, with the 10-year US Treasury now yielding approximately 3.2%.

Returns from bonds are helped by declining interest rates and hurt by rising interest rates.  Concerned about stock market volatility, investors moved $379 billion into bond funds in 2009 (while withdrawing $9 billion from stock funds).  Could it be that investors are increasing their bond allocations just before bond returns are again harmed by rising interest rates (like the 20 years starting in 1962)?  No one can say what future interest rates will do, but the above chart does give some nice historical perspective.